Season 2019/2020: Which players should Arsenal retain, sell and recruit?

With Arsenal’s 2018/2019 Premier League campaign in the books, and the off season transfer now open, it’s an opportune time to examine the on-field production of each player in Arsenal’s senior squad, and the player market, in order to identify:

• which players Arsenal should retain,
• which players Arsenal should seek to move on, and
• which players Arsenal should seek to recruit during the transfer window, based on their comparative on-field productivity.

Methodology

In assessing the on-field production and the comparative ranking of each player which comprise Arsenal’s senior squad, each player from that squad has been allocated into one of seven positional categories (with some players considered in multiple positional categories due to their notional versatility).

Those seven positional categories consist of:

• goalkeeper
• right fullback
• centre back
• left fullback
• centre midfield
• attacking midfield
• striker.

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category has then been considered, using data sourced from Whoscored.com.

To provide a realistic picture of each individual player’s on-field production, only data from those seasons, throughout the player’s professional career, where the player has started at least 15 league games in at least two seasons (consecutive or non-consecutive) was considered. Where a player has not, throughout their professional career, started at least 15 league games in at least two season (consecutive or non-consecutive), their productivity data was not assessed.

Different weightings were then assigned to the KPI data considered for each positional group based on the assumption that the cornerstones of Arsenal’s tactical approach is as follows:

• To provide a solid defensive platform, and allow for quick forward transitions, and higher probability goal scoring opportunities.
• Arsenal’s goalkeeper’s primary aims are to stop shots and claim crosses.
• Arsenal’s centre backs’ primary aims are to recover the ball from their opponent (tackles and interceptions), win aerial duels, clear the ball from defence, and block shots.
• Arsenal’s fullbacks’ primary aims are to recover the ball from their opponent (tackles and interceptions), execute multiple key passes during a match, and contribute to the team’s offensive transitional play through multiple forward dribbles per match.
• Arsenal’s central midfielders’ primary aims are to recover the ball from their opponent (tackles and interceptions), and contribute to the team’s offensive transitional play through accurate passing, multiple long range passes, and multiple forward dribbles per match.
• Arsenal’s attacking midfielders’ primary aims are to provide assists, score goals, and create goal scoring opportunities through multiple key passes, multiple through passes, and multiple forward dribbles per match.
• Arsenal’s strikers’ primary aims are to score goals, and record multiple shots and successful aerial duels per match.

Once the relative on field productivity of Arsenal’s current senior squad was assessed, the comparative KPI data (from Whoscored.com) of the players competing in the following leagues was then reviewed:

• English Premier League
• Championship
• Serie A
• Ligue 1
• La Liga
• Bundesliga
• Bundesliga 2
• Liga NOS
• Eredivisie
• Russian Premier League
• Brasileirao
• Major League Soccer
• Super Lig
• Primera Division
• Super League.

When considering players competing in the aforementioned leagues, certain clubs, who were subjectively deemed to be presently superior to Arsenal, were not considered. This included clubs such as Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, Porto, Roma, Napoli. This was designed to realistically account for Arsenal’s attractiveness as a prospective employer, based on the club’s current standing in European football (as a Europa League competitor) and as the 6th best Premier League side.

Also, only players from the aforementioned leagues who have, during their professional career, started at least 15 league games in at least two seasons (consecutive or non-consecutive) were considered. Where a player has not, throughout their professional career, started at least 15 league games in at least two seasons (consecutive or non-consecutive), their productivity data was not assessed. Again, this was designed to provide a realistic picture of each individual player’s on-field production.

The KPI data of the reviewed players was then contrasted against the KPI data of the players who currently comprise Arsenal’s senior squad, to identify prospective transfer targets.

Player assessment and rankings

Starting with the goalkeeping position, and while it’s unfair to judge Macey or Martinez’ suitability, as neither player has sufficient professional experience to appropriately assess their performances, it is fair to say that last season’s recruit Bernd Leno, delivered the sort of comparatively less impressive performances his career numbers indicated he was going to.

Given that, and there being a number of superior goalkeeping options which Arsenal could realistically pursue, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Leno, and recruit Esteban Andrada of Boca Juniors to serve as one of the club’s two senior goalkeepers.

In terms of the second of those two senior goalkeepers, with Martinez and Macey unproven but both considered ‘homegrown’, the club could retain either one of Martinez or Macey as the club’s second senior goalkeeper.

That said, given the criticality of the goalkeeping position, it would be more logical for Arsenal to err on the side of caution and pursue recruiting Andre Blake of Philadelphia Union, to serve as the second senior goalkeeper.

In terms of the club’s contracted right fullback options, there is no player who can legitimately lay claim to having a sufficiently productive performance record, both offensively and defensively, to warrant selection as one of the team’s two senior right fullbacks.  While it’s unfair to judge Jenkinson, Maitland-Niles or Osei-Tutu’s suitability, as none of those players have sufficient professional experience to appropriately assess their performances, the consistent lack of defensive production from Bellerin, and the lack of offensive production from Mustafi, means neither player can genuinely be considered a complete right fullback worthy of either senior right fullback role.

In light of the comparative deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted right fullback options, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Bellerin, and recruit William of Wolfsburg to serve as one of the club’s two senior right fullbacks.

In terms of the second of those senior right fullbacks, with the Premier League’s homegrown rule meaning Arsenal need to have at least 5 homegrown players within the club’s 22-man squad, Arsenal could potentially retain one of Jenkinson, Maitland Niles or Osei-Tutu, all of whom are homegrown but unproven, to fill that role.

That said, given the critical nature of defence, as the last line of protection for Arsenal’s goalkeeper, there is an argument that Arsenal should instead aim to recruit the next most productive right fullback to fill that second senior right fullback role. That being the case, Ricardo Pereira of Leicester City should be the Gunner’s key target. However, given the exorbitant prices of recruiting existing Premier League players, it may be more financially prudent for Arsenal to pursue Bebeto of Maritimo, to fill that second senior right fullback spot.

As for the club’s contracted centre back options, Arsenal fortunately have a player in Mustafi who can legitimately lay claim to having a sufficiently productive performance record to warrant selection as one of the club’s four senior centre backs.

As for the club’s other centre back options, while its unfair to judge Mavropanos, Holding or Bielik, as all three players have insufficient professional experience to appropriately assess their performances, in contrast to the players reviewed:

• Koscielny tackles per game record is inferior, and his propensity to win aerial duels is underwhelming;
• Sokratis’ interceptions and clearances per match records are inferior;
• Monreal’s propensity to win aerial duels is inferior, and his per game clearance and block rates are underwhelming;
• Chambers’ interceptions per match record and his propensity to win aerial duels are inferior; and
• Kolasinac’s interceptions per game record is inferior, as is his propensity to win aerial duels, and his per match clearance and block rates.

Needless to say, Mustafi aside, Arsenal lack a sufficient number of adequately productive centre back options.

That being the case, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Koscielny, Sokratis and Chambers, at a minimum, and recruit Sol Bamba of Cardiff City and Kyriakos Papadopolous of Hamburg, to serve alongside Mustafi at three of the club’s four senior central defenders.

In terms of the fourth centre back, Arsenal could potentially retain Bielik or Holding, both of whom are homegrown but unproven, to fill that role. Alternatively, the club could retain the unproven, and not homegrown, Mavropanos.

That said, given the aforementioned critical nature of defence, there is a strong argument that Arsenal should instead aim to recruit the next most productive centre backs available to fill that fourth senior centre back role. That being the case, and with Bruno Ecuele Manga have only recently joining Dijon, and Willy Boly of Wolverhampton Wolves likely to be too expensive, Salif Sane of Schalke should be the Gunner’s key target.

Regarding the club’s contracted left fullback options, like the club’s right fullback contingent, there is no player who can legitimately lay claim to having a sufficient performance record, both offensively and defensively, to warrant selection as one of the team’s two senior left fullbacks.

In contrast to the players reviewed:

• Monreal’s tackles per game record is inferior, while his propensity to complete successful forward dribbles per match and his per game key passing rate are underwhelming; and
• Kolasinac’s tackles and interceptions per match records are inferior, as his propensity to execute key passes per game. Further, his per match dribbling rate is underwhelming.

In light of the comparative deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted left fullback options, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell both Kolasinac and Monreal, and recruit Rene of Flamengo and Sander of Sport Recife, to serve as Arsenal’s two senior left fullbacks.

In terms of the club’s contracted central midfield options, its unfair to judge Elneny, Willock, Maitland Niles and Guendouzi’s suitability, as none of those players have had sufficient professional experience to appropriately assess their performances. Regarding Arsenal’s other central midfield options, in contrast to the players reviewed:

• Mustafi’s tackles per game record is comparatively underwhelming, and his propensity to complete successful forward dribbles per match is inferior;
• Xhaka’s tackles per game record is also comparatively underwhelming, while his interceptions per game record is inferior;
• Torreira’s tackles and interceptions per game record is comparatively underwhelming, as is his inclination to attempt and execute accurate long-range passes per match;
• Monreal’s tackles per game record is underwhelming, while his inclination to make accurate long-range passes per match and his tendency to complete successful forward dribbles per game are both inferior;
• Chambers’ tackles per game records is underwhelming, while his interceptions per match record and tendency to make accurate long-range passes per game are inferior;
• Kolasinac’s tackles per match record and his propensity to complete successful forward dribbles per game is inferior, while his interceptions per match record, tendency to make accurate long-range passes per game, and per match passing accuracy are all inferior.

In light of the comparative deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted central midfield options, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Xhaka and Torreira, and at a minimum, recruit Maxime Gonalons of Roma, and Idrissa Gueye of Everton to serve as two of Arsenal’s four senior central midfielder. That said, given Everton’s financial backing, it may be difficult for Arsenal to financially complete a transfer for Gueye. As such, Arsenal could alternatively pursue recruiting Ivan Macrone of Boca Juniors, to serve alongside Gonalons in Arsenal’s central midfield.

In terms of the club’s third and fourth senior centre midfielders, Arsenal could potentially retain Willock and Maitland Niles, both of whom are homegrown but unproven, to fill those roles. Alternatively, the club could retain the unproven, and not homegrown, Elneny and/or Guendouzi alongside or instead of either Willock or Maitland Niles.

While having highly productive and proven players in the defence is critical, given the defence’s role as the last line of protection for Arsenal’s goalkeeper, there is a strong argument that Arsenal have more flexibility to utilise unproven players to fulfil the third and fourth central midfield roles. That being the case, and given the Premier League’s homegrown rule, it would be logical for Arsenal to retain Willock and Maitland Niles as the club’s third and fourth senior central midfielders.

As for the club’s contracted attacking midfield options, its unfair to judge Nketiah, Smith-Rowe, Maitland Niles, Saka and Nelson’s suitability, as none of those players have had sufficient professional experience to appropriately assess their performances. Regarding Arsenal’s other current attacking midfield options, in contrast to the players reviewed:

• Ozil’s goals per season record is inferior, as is his propensity to shoot per game. His tendency to complete successful forward dribbles per match is also underwhelming;
• Mkhitaryan’s assists per season record is underwhelming, as is his key passes and through passes per game record, and his propensity to shoot per match. In addition, Mkhitaryan’s goals per season record is inferior;
• Lacazette’s assists per season record is inferior, as is his key passes and through passes per game record. Lacazette’s tendency to complete successful forward dribbles per match is also underwhelming, as is his propensity to shoot per game;
• Aubameyang’s assists per season record, his tendency to complete successful forward dribbles per match, and his key passes and through passes per game records are all inferior;
• Iwobi’s goals and assists per season records are inferior, as is his shots per game and key passes per match records. Iwobi’s through passes per game record and his tendency to complete successful forward dribbles per match are also underwhelming.

In light of the comparative deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted attacking midfield options, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Mkhitaryan, Ozil, and Iwobi, at a minimum, and recruit Hulk of Shanghai, and Hakim Ziyech of Ajax to serve as two of Arsenal’s senior attacking midfielders. That said, given Hulk’s sizeable wage, it may be difficult for Arsenal to complete a transfer for the Brazilian. As such, Arsenal could alternatively pursue recruiting Hirving Lozano of PSV Eindhoven, to serve alongside Ziyech as two of Arsenal’s key attacking midfielders.

In terms of the club’s third and fourth senior attacking midfielders, while having highly productive and proven players in the striking roles is critical, given their primary function is to score the bulk of the side’s goals, there is a strong argument that Arsenal have more flexibility to utilise unproven players to fulfil the backup attacking midfield roles. That being the case, and given the Premier League’s homegrown rule, it would be logical for Arsenal to retain two of Nketiah, Saka, Nelson and Smith-Rowe as the club’s third and fourth senior attacking midfielders.

Regarding the club’s contracted striker options, Arsenal fortunately have a player in Aubameyang who can legitimately lay claim to having a sufficiently productive performance record to warrant selection as one of the club’s four senior strikers.

As for the club’s other striking options, its unfair to judge Nketiah, Saka or Nelson, as all three players have insufficient professional experience to appropriately assess their performances. Regarding the club’s other current striker options, in contrast to the players reviewed:

• Lacazette’s shots per game record is underwhelming;
• Mkhitaryan goals per season record is inferior, while his shots per match record is underwhelming; and
• Iwobi’s goals per season, shots per match and successful aerial duels per game records are all inferior.

In light of the comparative deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted striking options, Aubmeyang, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Lacazette and, at a minimum, and recruit Eran Zahavi of Guangzhou to serve alongside Aubameyang as two of Arsenal’s four senior strikers.

In terms of the third and fourth senior strikers, while having highly productive and proven players in the striking roles is critical, given their primary function is to score the bulk of the side’s goals, Arsenal need to balance this with the need to comply with the Premier League homegrown rule. That being the case, and with Luuk de Jong only having just signing for Sevilla, it would be logical for Arsenal to recruit Simon Terrode of FC Cologne and retain one of Nketiah or Saka, and have both players serve as the club’s third and fourth senior strikers.

Recommended Transfer Activity

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