SEASON 2022/2023: WHICH PLAYERS ARSENAL SHOULD RETAIN, SELL AND RECRUIT TO FIT A 4-1-2-3 FORMATION

Posted on June 1, 2022 by Freddie08

With Arsenal’s 2021/2022 Premier League campaign in the books, and the transfer window shortly to open, it’s an opportune time to examine the on-field production of each player in Arsenal’s senior squad, and the player market, in order to identify:

which players Arsenal should retain
which players Arsenal should sell
which players Arsenal should recruit.

Methodology

In assessing the on-field production and the comparative ranking of each player which comprise Arsenal’s senior squad, each player is allocated into 9 positional categories (with some players allocated to multiple positional categories due to their perceived versatility).

Those positional categories consist of:

Goalkeeper
Right Wingback
Centre Back
Left Wingback
Central Defensive Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder
Right Forward
Centre Forward
Left Forward

Once categorised, each player’s output in defined key performance indicators (KPIs) for their respective positional category has then been considered, using data sourced from Whoscored.com.

To provide a realistic picture of each individual player’s on-field production, only data from those seasons, throughout the player’s professional career, where the player has started at least 19 league games in at least two seasons (consecutive or non-consecutive) in Europe’s top 5 leagues or the Championship, was considered. Where a player has not met that criteria, their productivity data was not assessed.

The KPI data considered for each positional group is based on the assumption that Arsenal adopt a 4-1-2-3 formation and the cornerstones of Arsenal’s tactical approach is as follows:

Defending by the wingbacks, attacking midfielders, and forwards pressing the opposition in their own half, with the centre backs and central defensive midfielder containing the opposition in the event they break the press.
Attacking through a combination of:
- direct long passes from the centre backs and central defensive midfielders into the centre forward to create for the wide forwards or link with the attacking midfielders who in turn can create for the wide forwards making inside runs, with the wingbacks holding the width
- direct long passes from the centre backs and central defensive midfielder into the wide forwards making runs into the channel
- crosses from the wingbacks into the centre forward, created by switching the play through long direct cross-field passes into space that the wingback can attack.
- counter pressing.
The goalkeeper’s primary aims are to stop shots and claim crosses.
The wingbacks’ primary aims are to tackle their opponent (2+ per match) to recover the ball and and contribute to the team’s offensive play through attacking dribbles (1+ per game) and key passes (1+ per game).
The central backs’ primary aims are to shield the goalkeeper by positioning themselves to intercept balls (2+ per game), win aerial duels (3+ per game), and contribute to the team’s attacking play through long passes per match (3+ per game).
The central defensive midfielder’s primary aims are to tackle their opponent (2+ per match) and make interceptions (2+ per match) to recover the ball, and contribute to the team’s attacking play through long passes per match (3+ per match).
The attacking midfielders’ primary aims are to tackle their opponent (2+ per game) and contribute to the team’s offensive play through attacking dribbles (1+ per game) and key passes (1+ per game).
The forwards’ primary aim is to contribute to the team’s offensive play through attacking dribbles (1+ per match) and key passes (1+ per game) and in the form of goal scoring (10+ goals per season).

Once the on field productivity of Arsenal’s current senior squad was assessed, the comparative KPI data (from Whoscored.com) of those players competing in the following leagues was then reviewed:

English Premier League
Championship
Serie A
Ligue 1
La Liga
Bundesliga

When considering players competing in the aforementioned leagues, those players in clubs who are competing in the 2022/23 Champions League were not considered. This included Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus, Napoli, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Lille, PSG, Monaco, and Marseille. This was designed to realistically account for Arsenal’s attractiveness as a prospective employer, based on the club’s current standing in European football (Europa League club).

Also, only players from the aforementioned leagues who have, during their professional career, started at least 19 league games in at least two seasons (consecutive or non-consecutive) in those leagues, were considered. Where a player has not met that criteria, their productivity data was not assessed. Again, this was designed to provide a realistic picture of each individual player’s on-field production.

The KPI data of the reviewed players was then contrasted against the KPI data of the players who currently comprise Arsenal’s squad.

Player rankings

Goalkeeper (KPI: Whoscored.com rating of 7)

Starting with the goalkeeping position, it’s unfair to judge Turner, Okonkwo, Runarsson or Hein’s suitability, as all four of those players have insufficient professional experience in the reviewed leagues to appropriately assess their performances. That said, it is fair to say that Bernd Leno and Aaron Ramsdale, have not met the required performance standard during their respective careers to date.

In light of that, a lack of alternative goalkeeping options in the considered leagues with the required KPI level, and the need for one of Arsenal’s goalkeepers to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Leno, Ramsdale and Runarsson and retain Turner, Hein and Okonkwo to serve as Arsenal’s three goalkeepers.

Right Wingback (KPIs: 2+ Tackles, 1+ Dribbles, 1+ Key Passes)

In terms of the right wingback position, it’s unfair to judge Maitland-Niles, Swanson, Norton-Cuffy or Osei-Tutu’s suitability, as all four of those players have insufficient professional experience in the reviewed leagues to appropriately assess their performances.

As for the club’s other contracted right wingback options:

Soares is strong in terms of tackles and key passes per game but is inadequate in terms of dribbles per game
Bellerin is strong in terms of dribbles per game but is both inadequate in terms of tackles and key passes per game.

In light of the deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted right wingback options, a very limited number of alternative right wingback options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for one of Arsenal’s right wingbacks to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Soares, Bellerin and Osei-Tutu, recruit Felipe Anderson from Lazio and retain Maitland-Niles and Norton-Cuffy as the club’s three right wingbacks.

Centre Backs (KPIs: 2+ Interceptions, 3+ Successful Aerial Duels, 3+ Long Passes)

As for the club’s contracted centre backs, it’s unfair to judge Rekik, Clarke, Ballard and Mari as all four players have insufficient professional experience in any of the considered leagues, to appropriately assess their performances.

Regarding the club’s other contracted centre backs:

Holding is strong in terms of interceptions and long passes per match, but is inadequate in so far as successful aerial duels per match
Saliba is strong in terms of long passes per match, but is inadequate both in terms of interceptions and successful aerial duels per match
White, Tomiyasu and Gabriel are inadequate in terms of interceptions, long passes and successful aerial duels per match.

In light of the deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted centre backs, there being a number of alternative centre back options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for two of Arsenal’s centre backs to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Holding, Tomiyasu, Saliba, Gabriel, Mari and Ballard, recruit Shaun Hutchinson from Millwall, Marc Oliver Kempf from Hertha Berlin, Liam Cooper from Leeds United and Bremier from Torino, and retain Rekik and Clarke as the club’s six centre backs.

Left Wingback (KPIs: 2+ Tackles, 1+ Dribbles, 1+ Key Passes)

In terms of the left wingback position, it’s unfair to judge Tavares’ suitability, as he has insufficient professional experience in the reviewed leagues to appropriately assess his performances.

As for the club’s other contracted left wingback options, Tierney is strong in terms of key passes per game but is inadequate in terms of tackles and dribbles per game.

In light of the deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted left wingback options, a number of alternative left wingback options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for one of Arsenal’s left wingbacks to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Tierney, recruit Simone Bastoni from Spezia and Marcus Tavernier from Middlesbrough and retain Tavares as the club’s three left wingbacks.

Central Defensive Midfielder (KPIs: 2+ Tackles, 2+ Interceptions, 1+ Dribbles, 3+ Long Passes)

In terms of the central defensive midfield position, it’s unfair to judge Maitland-Niles, Akinola, Smith, Azeez, Lokonga and Elneny’s suitability, as all six players have insufficient professional experience in the reviewed leagues to appropriately assess their performances.

As for the club’s other contracted central defensive midfield options:

Partey is strong in terms of tackles and dribbles per match but is inadequate in terms of interceptions and long passes per match
Xhaka is strong in terms of tackles and long passes per match but is inadequate in terms of interceptions and dribbles per match
Torreira is strong in terms of tackles per match but is inadequate in terms of interceptions, dribbles and long passes per match
White and Guendouzi are both inadequate in terms of tackles, interceptions, dribbles and long passes per match.

In light of the deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted central defensive midfield options, Maitland-Niles assignment as one of the club’s right wingback options, a very limited number of alternative central defensive midfield options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for one of Arsenal’s central defensive midfielders to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Partey, Xhaka, Torreira, White, Guendouzi, Lokonga, Azeez and Smith, recruit Milan Badelj from Genoa and retain Elneny and Akinola as the club’s three central defensive midfield options.

Attacking Midfielders (KPIs: 2+ Tackles, 1+ Dribbles, 1+ Key Passes)

As for the club’s contracted attacking midfielders, it’s unfair to judge Smith-Rowe, Patino, Cirijan, Flores and Oulad M’Hand as all five players have insufficient professional experience in any of the considered leagues, to appropriately assess their performances.

Regarding the club’s other contracted attacking midfielders, Odegaard is strong in terms of dribbles and key passes per game, but is inadequate in so far as tackles per game.

In light of the deficiencies of Arsenal’s currently contracted attacking midfielders, there being a number of alternative attacking midfield options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for two of Arsenal’s attacking midfielders to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Odegaard, Flores, Oulad M’Hand and Cirijan, recruit Teji Savanier from Montpellier, Emiliano Buendia from Aston Villa, Oscar Trejo from Raya Vallecano and Lucas Paqueta from Lyon, and retain Smith-Rowe and Patino and as the club’s six attacking midfielders.

Right Forward (KPIs: 10+ Goals, 1+ Dribbles, 1+ Key Passes)

In terms of the club’s contracted right forward options, it’s unfair to judge the suitability of Hutchinson, as he has insufficient professional experience in any of the examined leagues to appropriately assess his performances.

Regarding Arsenal’s other contracted right forward options:

Pepe is strong in terms of goals per season, and key passes and dribbles per match.
Saka is strong in term of key passes and dribbles per match, but is inadequate in terms of goals per season.

In light of Saka’s deficiencies, Pepe’s KPIs, and the need for one of Arsenal’s right forwards to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Saka, recruit Iago Aspas from Celta Vigo and retain Pepe and Hutchinson as the club’s three right forward options.

Centre Forward (KPIs: 10+ Goals, 1+ Dribbles, 3+ Successful aerial duels)

As for the club’s contracted centre forwards, it’s unfair to judge Moller, John-Jules and Biereth as all three players have insufficient professional experience in any of the considered leagues, to appropriately assess their performances.

In light of the lack of experience in Arsenal’s currently contracted centre forwards, there being a number of alternative centre forward options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for one of Arsenal’s centre forwards to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Moller and John-Jules, recruit Ivan Toney from Brentford, Wout Weghorst from Burnley, and retain Biereth as the club’s three centre forwards.

Left Forward (KPIs: 10+ Goals, 1+ Dribbles, 1+ Key Passes)

As for the club’s contracted left forwards, it’s unfair to judge Nketiah, Balogun, Martinelli, Smith-Rowe, Nelson, Lewis, Ideho or Taylor-Hart as all eight players have insufficient professional experience in any of the considered leagues, to appropriately assess their performances.

In light of the lack of experience in Arsenal’s currently contracted left forwards, Smith-Rowe’s assignment as one of the club’s attacking midfield options, there being a number of alternative left forward options in the considered leagues with the required KPIs, and the need for one of Arsenal’s left forwards to be under 21 years of age, it would be logical for Arsenal to sell Nketiah, Balogun, Taylor-Hart, Nelson, Lewis and Ideho, recruit Said Benrahma from West Ham and Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa, and retain Martinelli as the club’s three left forwards.

Summary of proposed Arsenal squad

First team